{"id":9319,"date":"2019-01-02T09:04:15","date_gmt":"2019-01-02T17:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/?p=9319"},"modified":"2021-01-22T00:23:44","modified_gmt":"2021-01-22T05:23:44","slug":"the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/","title":{"rendered":"The Financial Equation: Bear Markets \u2026 Time to Panic?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>President Trump\u2019s handling of both trade issues and the fed interest-rate hikes has caused some market <strong><a aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/financial-dictionary\/volatility?query=volatility\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">volatility<\/a><\/strong>, and many world stock markets have either fallen into or are close to hitting bear market territory (declines of more than 20 percent from the high). Because of this, you\u2019ve probably felt some degree of heightened volatility in your portfolio. Should you panic and sell all your investments? Most often the answer to that question is no. What most people should be worried about is how this volatility affects their portfolios and financial plans for the long term (not the short term).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For most people who are in their 20s, 30s, 40s and early 50s or have at least 10 or more years to accumulate assets toward their goals, you probably have very little to worry about in regards to the latest financial turmoil. In fact, it will probably give you an opportunity to buy some discounted investments, thereby helping your portfolio grow more down the line. So be ready with any extra cash you may have to invest in bargains and\/or possibly sell off certain investments that may no longer make sense to hold in your portfolio (for example, end of year tax-loss harvesting to erase any big portfolio gains).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For those closing in on or already in retirement (in your mid-50s, 60s and older) or those who have less than 10 years to accumulate assets toward their goals, you may be a bit more concerned about how this recent market turmoil may affect you (and understandably so). However, let\u2019s highlight some statistics that may make you re-think your worries \u2013 and stop you from worrying too much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_68_1 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-69e74fdb507a4\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-69e74fdb507a4\"  aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/#Market_Corrections_are_Normal\" title=\"Market Corrections are Normal\">Market Corrections are Normal<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/#Bear_Markets_Have_Been_Shorter_Than_Bull_Markets_Historically\" title=\"Bear Markets Have Been Shorter Than Bull Markets, Historically\">Bear Markets Have Been Shorter Than Bull Markets, Historically<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/#Market_Movements_are_Random_in_the_Short_Term_and_Predictable_in_the_Long_Term\" title=\"Market Movements are Random in the Short Term and Predictable in the Long Term\">Market Movements are Random in the Short Term and Predictable in the Long Term<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/#Anticipate_Better_Days\" title=\"Anticipate Better Days\">Anticipate Better Days<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/#So_What_Should_You_Take_Away_From_These_Points\" title=\"So, What Should You Take Away From These Points?\">So, What Should You Take Away From These Points?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Market_Corrections_are_Normal\"><\/span>Market Corrections are Normal<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In the U.S. markets, we average a 10 percent correction once a year, and we just had one in early 2018 (<strong><a aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yardeni.com\/pub\/sp500corrbear.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">S&amp;P 500 was down 10.3 percent<\/a><\/strong>), so we\u2019ve just experienced two pullbacks in 2018. Bear markets occur every 3-\u00bd years, and we\u2019ve been more than due for one (the last U.S. bear market ended in the first quarter of 2009).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bear_Markets_Have_Been_Shorter_Than_Bull_Markets_Historically\"><\/span>Bear Markets Have Been Shorter Than Bull Markets, Historically<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>On average, bear markets last 16 months, and the average cumulative loss is 41 percent. Bull markets, on average, last 9.1 years with an average cumulative gain of <strong><a aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ftportfolios.com\/Common\/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">476 percent<\/a><\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Market_Movements_are_Random_in_the_Short_Term_and_Predictable_in_the_Long_Term\"><\/span>Market Movements are Random in the Short Term and Predictable in the Long Term<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Try this exercise: For the next 15 business days (three weeks), try to predict where the markets are going to go the following day. To keep it simple, all you have to do is predict whether it will go up or down (you need not worry about how much). The chance of you getting all 15 days right is less than 1 in 33,000. To put this in perspective, you have a higher chance (1 in 9,000) that the Earth will be struck by a huge meteor during your lifetime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Anticipate_Better_Days\"><\/span>Anticipate Better Days<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The effects of corrections don\u2019t last long. After a drop of 10 percent to 20 percent, it typically takes just four months to break even. Also, a severe bear market tends to be followed by a sharp bull market rebound. Each time these stocks dropped more than 40 percent, they rebounded by more than 33 percent during the first year of the comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"So_What_Should_You_Take_Away_From_These_Points\"><\/span>So, What Should You Take Away From These Points? <span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>If you can remain patient (and not panic) and put more money to work in quality investments after the markets pull back by more than 10 percent, and if you can maintain a long-term investment perspective, historically, that has greatly helped investors reach their financial goals. After all, we\u2019ve all heard of the sayings, \u201cbuy low, sell high\u201d and \u201cbuy on the dips.\u201d Unfortunately, most investors do the exact opposite, and that\u2019s where they cost themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Don\u2019t be in that group that makes emotional investment decisions \u2013 especially now that you\u2019re armed with this knowledge. Take advantage of this information and of your financial situation. (You\u2019re welcome!) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You should also make sure you find an experienced financial advisor who regularly advises clients to not panic during volatile markets. You should find a financial advisor who works for an RIA firm, <strong><a aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/advisors\/top-financial-advisors-dont-collect-commissions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">earns his\/her money from fees<\/a><\/strong> (not commissions), believes in having an abundance of investment choices for clients and has the heart and demeanor of a teacher (not a salesman). Once you\u2019ve found this financial advisor, chances are you\u2019ve found the right financial advisor to help you prepare and plan for your financial goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about <strong><a aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/mfadvisers.com\/martin-federici\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Martin Federici<\/a><\/strong>, <strong><a aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/financial-advisor\/dallas-pennsylvania\/Martin.Federici.Jr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">view his Paladin Registry research report<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump\u2019s handling of both trade issues and the fed interest-rate hikes has caused some market volatility, and many world stock markets have either fallen into or are close to hitting bear market territory (declines of more than 20 percent from the high). Because of this, you\u2019ve probably felt some degree of heightened volatility in your portfolio. Should you panic and sell all your investments? Most often the answer to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":9320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[395],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Financial Equation: Bear Markets: Time to Panic? - Paladin Registry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here&#039;s what you need to know about market volatility and what you should do to stop worrying about it so much. There&#039;s no reason to panic.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Financial Equation: Bear Markets: Time to Panic? - Paladin Registry\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Here&#039;s what you need to know about market volatility and what you should do to stop worrying about it so much. There&#039;s no reason to panic.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Paladin Registry Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/marty.federici\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-01-02T17:04:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-01-22T05:23:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/market-volatility-Paladin-Registry.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"724\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"483\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Martin Federici, Jr.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@mfadvisers\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@PaladinRegistry\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Martin Federici, Jr.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/\",\"name\":\"The Financial Equation: Bear Markets: Time to Panic? - Paladin Registry\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/the-financial-equation-bear-markets-time-to-panic\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/market-volatility-Paladin-Registry.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-02T17:04:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-01-22T05:23:44+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/cb07bbd1f4f1e3dda452fe9bc8abe85e\"},\"description\":\"Here's what you need to know about market volatility and what you should do to stop worrying about it so much. 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