{"id":5307,"date":"2015-01-28T05:27:10","date_gmt":"2015-01-28T13:27:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/?p=5307"},"modified":"2015-01-27T19:39:17","modified_gmt":"2015-01-28T03:39:17","slug":"decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"A Decision Framework for Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/investing\/investment-risk\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Investors should <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-5321\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds-300x174.jpg\" alt=\"decision framework govt bonds\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds-300x174.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward<\/span><\/a>. In this article\u00a0I examine the risk-reward trade-offs of 10 year U.S. government bonds. Many have commented that the current interest rate environment does not reward investors since there\u2019s not much room for an interest decline whereas the yield upside is unlimited. Let\u2019s compare and contrast downside exposure to upside potential in order to form a reasonable decision rule.<\/p>\n<p>The decision rule that makes sense to me is to not hold 10 year government bonds if the downside exposure exceeds the upside potential.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I define upside potential as the return that would be earned if interest rates went from their current level down to zero; this is a pretty optimistic measure.<\/li>\n<li>I define downside exposure as the return that would be earned if interest rates increase from their current level up to their historic level of 6.5%. \u00a0If interest rates are currently above 6.5%, I define downside exposure as the risk that interest rates increase by 2%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Let\u2019s start with a look at the history of 10 year government bond yields over the past 54 years, as provided by the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/DGS10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/span><\/a><\/span>. Yields are currently at their lowest level, 4% below the historical average.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Yield-History.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-5310 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Yield-History.png\" alt=\"Yield History\" width=\"624\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Yield-History.png 624w, https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Yield-History-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Yield-History-290x166.png 290w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As you can see, yields peaked at 14% in the mid 1980s and have been declining since. It\u2019s no secret that bond investors in the 1980s enjoyed very nice bond returns.<\/p>\n<p>Now let\u2019s look at the history of upside potential versus downside risk:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Upside-vs-Downside.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"360\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5312\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Upside-vs-Downside.png\" alt=\"Upside vs Downside\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Upside-vs-Downside.png 624w, https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Upside-vs-Downside-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Upside-vs-Downside-290x166.png 290w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As interest rates have declined, so has upside potential because yields have grown closer to zero.\u00a0 At the same time, downside exposure has increased, especially since 2008 when the government started manipulating, and artificially depressing, interest rates. As it stands now, downside exposure exceeds upside potential, making 10 year government bonds very unattractive.<\/p>\n<p>We get another view looking at the history of the ratio of upside potential to downside risk. Anything below one is undesirable, as is the case now.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Up-Down-Ratio.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"620\" height=\"360\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5313\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Up-Down-Ratio.png\" alt=\"Up Down Ratio\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Up-Down-Ratio.png 620w, https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Up-Down-Ratio-300x174.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This leads to an investment rule regarding the duration of our bond holdings, namely don\u2019t hold long term bonds when the upside is less than the downside. As shown in the following table, this rule holds whenever yields drift below 3%, as they did in 2011 and beyond. That\u2019s why we reduced bond duration in our <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.paladinregistry.com\/investing-2\/target-date-funds-work\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">target date funds<\/span><\/a><\/span> in 2011. We\u2019ll restore to long term bonds again when interest rates move above 4.5%, as they will someday, and the reward-to-risk exceeds 2.<\/p>\n<table dir=\"ltr\" border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col width=\"56\" \/>\n<col width=\"85\" \/>\n<col width=\"88\" \/>\n<col width=\"87\" \/>\n<col width=\"79\" \/><\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,2,&quot;Yield&quot;]\"><strong>Yield<\/strong><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,2,&quot;Duration&quot;]\"><strong>Duration<\/strong><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,2,&quot;Upside Potential&quot;]\"><strong>Upside Potential<\/strong><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,2,&quot;Downside Risk&quot;]\"><strong>Downside Risk<\/strong><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,2,&quot;Ratio&quot;]\"><strong>Ratio<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,1]\">1<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8.5]\">8.5<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8.48]\">8.48<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,46.65]\">46.65<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,0.18]\">0.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,2]\">2<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8]\">8<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,16]\">16<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,36.01]\">36.01<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,0.44]\">0.44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,3]\">3<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7.6]\">7.6<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,22.68]\">22.68<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,26.46]\">26.46<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,0.86]\">0.86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>4<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7.1]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>7.1<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,28.6]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>28.6<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,17.87]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>17.87<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,1.6]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>1.6<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,5]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>5<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,6.8]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>6.8<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,33.85]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>33.85<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,13.54]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>13.54<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,2.5]\"><span style=\"color: rgb(255, 0, 0);\"><strong>2.5<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,6]\">6<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,6.4]\">6.4<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,38.5]\">38.5<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,12.83]\">12.83<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,3]\">3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7]\">7<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,6.1]\">6.1<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,42.62]\">42.62<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,12.18]\">12.18<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,3.5]\">3.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8]\">8<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,5.8]\">5.8<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,46.27]\">46.27<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,11.57]\">11.57<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4]\">4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,9]\">9<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,5.5]\">5.5<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,49.5]\">49.5<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,11]\">11<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4.5]\">4.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,10]\">10<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,5.2]\">5.2<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,52.35]\">52.35<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,10.47]\">10.47<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,5]\">5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,11]\">11<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,5]\">5<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,54.87]\">54.87<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,9.98]\">9.98<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,5.5]\">5.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,12]\">12<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4.8]\">4.8<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,57.09]\">57.09<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,9.51]\">9.51<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,6]\">6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,13]\">13<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4.5]\">4.5<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,59.04]\">59.04<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,9.08]\">9.08<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,6.5]\">6.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,14]\">14<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4.3]\">4.3<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,60.74]\">60.74<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8.68]\">8.68<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7]\">7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,15]\">15<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4.1]\">4.1<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,62.24]\">62.24<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8.3]\">8.3<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7.5]\">7.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,16]\">16<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,4]\">4<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,63.54]\">63.54<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7.94]\">7.94<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8]\">8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,17]\">17<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,3.8]\">3.8<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,64.67]\">64.67<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7.61]\">7.61<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,8.5]\">8.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,18]\">18<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,3.6]\">3.6<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,65.64]\">65.64<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7.29]\">7.29<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,9]\">9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,19]\">19<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,3.5]\">3.5<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,66.47]\">66.47<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,7]\">7<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,9.5]\">9.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,20]\">20<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,3.4]\">3.4<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,67.18]\">67.18<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,6.72]\">6.72<\/td>\n<td data-sheets-value=\"[null,3,null,10]\">10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em><strong style=\"font-weight: bold;\">To learn more about Ron Surz, visit him at\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #222222;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.targetdatesolutions.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">www.TargetDateSolutions.com<\/span><\/a><\/span>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors should only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward. In this article\u00a0I examine the risk-reward trade-offs of 10 year U.S. government bonds. Many have commented that the current interest rate environment does not reward investors since there\u2019s not much room for an interest decline whereas the yield upside is unlimited. Let\u2019s compare and contrast downside exposure to upside potential in order to form a reasonable decision rule.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":5321,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[395],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Examine the risk-reward trade-offs of holding 10 year U.S. government bonds. Investors should only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Examine the risk-reward trade-offs of holding 10 year U.S. government bonds. Investors should only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Paladin Registry Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-01-28T13:27:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-01-28T03:39:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ron Surz\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RonSurz\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@PaladinRegistry\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ron Surz\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/\",\"name\":\"Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-01-28T13:27:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-01-28T03:39:17+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/6bf0c2620b3323d78eb421dbf27faf88\"},\"description\":\"Examine the risk-reward trade-offs of holding 10 year U.S. government bonds. Investors should only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg\",\"width\":620,\"height\":360},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Investing\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/category\/investing\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"A Decision Framework for Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Paladin Registry Blog\",\"description\":\"Helping You Make Better Financial Decisions\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/6bf0c2620b3323d78eb421dbf27faf88\",\"name\":\"Ron Surz\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/Ron-Surz1-96x96.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/Ron-Surz1-96x96.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Ron Surz\"},\"description\":\"Ron Surz is the president of PPCA Inc and its wholly owned subsidiary Target Date Solutions. He is a pension consulting veteran, having started with A.G. Becker in the 1970's. Ron earned an MBA in Finance at the University of Chicago and an MS in Applied Mathematics at the University of Illinois, and holds a CIMA (Certified Investment Management Analyst) designation. He has published regularly in such publications as The Journal of Wealth Management, The Journal of Investing, Journal of Portfolio Management, Pensions &amp; Investments, Senior Consultant, HorsesMouth and the IMCA Monitor, as well as contributed to and edited several books. Ron\u2019s most recent co-authored book is the \u201cFiduciary Handbook for Understanding and Selecting Target Date Funds.\u201d\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/www.targetdatesolutions.com\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/profile\/view?trk=tyah&locale=en_US&id=11979428\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/RonSurz\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/author\/ron-surz\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds","description":"Examine the risk-reward trade-offs of holding 10 year U.S. government bonds. Investors should only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds","og_description":"Examine the risk-reward trade-offs of holding 10 year U.S. government bonds. Investors should only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/","og_site_name":"Paladin Registry Blog","article_published_time":"2015-01-28T13:27:10+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-01-28T03:39:17+00:00","og_image":[{"width":620,"height":360,"url":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Ron Surz","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@RonSurz","twitter_site":"@PaladinRegistry","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ron Surz","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/","url":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/","name":"Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg","datePublished":"2015-01-28T13:27:10+00:00","dateModified":"2015-01-28T03:39:17+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/6bf0c2620b3323d78eb421dbf27faf88"},"description":"Examine the risk-reward trade-offs of holding 10 year U.S. government bonds. Investors should only take risk if there\u2019s a reasonable possibility of reward.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/decision-framework-govt-bonds.jpg","width":620,"height":360},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/investing\/decision-framework-holding-long-term-u-s-government-bonds\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Investing","item":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/category\/investing\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"A Decision Framework for Holding Long Term U.S. Government Bonds"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/","name":"Paladin Registry Blog","description":"Helping You Make Better Financial Decisions","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/6bf0c2620b3323d78eb421dbf27faf88","name":"Ron Surz","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/Ron-Surz1-96x96.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/Ron-Surz1-96x96.jpg","caption":"Ron Surz"},"description":"Ron Surz is the president of PPCA Inc and its wholly owned subsidiary Target Date Solutions. He is a pension consulting veteran, having started with A.G. Becker in the 1970's. Ron earned an MBA in Finance at the University of Chicago and an MS in Applied Mathematics at the University of Illinois, and holds a CIMA (Certified Investment Management Analyst) designation. He has published regularly in such publications as The Journal of Wealth Management, The Journal of Investing, Journal of Portfolio Management, Pensions &amp; Investments, Senior Consultant, HorsesMouth and the IMCA Monitor, as well as contributed to and edited several books. Ron\u2019s most recent co-authored book is the \u201cFiduciary Handbook for Understanding and Selecting Target Date Funds.\u201d","sameAs":["http:\/\/www.targetdatesolutions.com","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/profile\/view?trk=tyah&locale=en_US&id=11979428","https:\/\/x.com\/RonSurz"],"url":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/author\/ron-surz\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5307"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5307"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5307\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9937,"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5307\/revisions\/9937"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.paladinregistry.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}